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ASX:NGX

NGX Ltd

Investment Summary

The fund managers believe NGX Ltd, through its flagship asset NexGen Energy, represents a compelling long-term investment opportunity due to the strategic importance and scale of its Arrow uranium project in Saskatchewan, Canada. In their opinion, Arrow is the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit and will be a critical new Western supply source in a market facing a looming structural deficit. They note that while NexGen’s share price has experienced short-term volatility—largely driven by fluctuations in spot uranium prices and shifting sentiment around geopolitical and supply-side developments—the long-term fundamentals of the uranium market remain robust. Key industry dynamics, including declining production from major suppliers and increasing demand from nuclear energy expansion, support the thesis that uranium prices will trend higher over time. The fund managers point to the significant progress NexGen has made in advancing regulatory approvals, with the project now entering its final stage of federal permitting and construction anticipated to begin shortly thereafter. Once operational, Arrow is expected to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow, a highly attractive outcome relative to NexGen’s current market capitalisation. In their view, the combination of project scale, cash flow potential, strategic importance, and proximity to full-scale development makes NGX Ltd materially undervalued and well-positioned for long-term upside.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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Commentary From The Manager

L1 Capital

Date

31 Jan 2024

Price

$0.14

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund has provided an updated investment thesis on NexGen Ltd (NGX), reaffirming its constructive outlook as uranium market dynamics continue to strengthen. NexGen shares rose in January, supported by an 11% increase in spot uranium prices, which reached 15-year highs amid growing concerns over medium-term supply deficits. These concerns were further reinforced by Kazatomprom—responsible for around 20% of global supply—downgrading its 2024 production guidance, highlighting the fragility of existing supply chains. L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold NexGen because it is progressing the development of Arrow, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is seen as a strategically important Western supply source, particularly given the evolving global energy landscape. At current uranium prices, Arrow has the potential to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow once operational, reinforcing the Fund’s view of NexGen’s long-term strategic and financial appeal.

L1 Capital

Date

28 Feb 2024

Price

$0.16

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund has provided an update on its investment thesis in NexGen Ltd (NGX), reaffirming its long-term conviction despite a recent share price pullback. The decline followed a moderation in uranium market sentiment, triggered by higher-than-expected 2024 production guidance from Cameco and the absence of anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel exports. Nevertheless, L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to see strong medium- to long-term supply/demand tailwinds for uranium. NexGen remains central to this thesis, as it advances development of the Arrow project in Saskatchewan—considered the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit. Once operational, Arrow could generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow at current uranium spot prices, a significant value opportunity relative to NexGen’s C$5.6 billion market capitalisation. L1 Capital Long Short Fund initiated the bulk of its investment when NexGen’s market cap was closer to C$2 billion, underscoring its view of the company’s long-term strategic and financial potential.

L1 Capital

Date

31 Mar 2024

Price

$0.16

Medium

Quarterly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold its position in NexGen Energy Ltd. after a strong quarter, where the stock benefited from uranium prices reaching 15-year highs. This surge was driven by structural demand tailwinds and a production downgrade from Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer. L1 Capital remains optimistic about the uranium market's positive supply/demand dynamics over the medium to long term. NexGen is progressing toward developing the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, Arrow, in Saskatchewan, Canada. Once operational by 2028, Arrow is expected to generate over C$2 billion annually in cash flow, presenting an attractive opportunity given NexGen’s current market cap of around C$5.8 billion. L1 Capital first invested in NexGen when its market cap was approximately C$2 billion, and with regulatory approvals expected to be completed in 2024, the Fund sees a clear pathway toward full-scale development of the Arrow project, positioning the company to address the uranium market deficit in the coming years.

L1 Capital

Date

30 June 2024

Price

Unknown

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold NexGen (Long -10%) despite a decline in its shares, driven by an 8% fall in uranium prices over the month. The fund remains positive on the uranium market, which continues to exhibit strong supply and demand fundamentals over the medium to long term. NexGen is advancing the development of Arrow, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. Arrow represents a significant new strategic source for the Western uranium market, addressing the anticipated supply deficit. L1 Capital expects NexGen to complete all necessary regulatory requirements by 2024, paving the way for full-scale construction of the project. Once developed, Arrow has the potential to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow, making it an attractive proposition given NexGen’s current market cap of around C$5.2 billion.

L1 Capital

Date

31 Aug 2024

Price

$0.17

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold NexGen Energy Ltd, despite a recent decline in shares due to a 6% drop in uranium prices. The Fund maintains its positive outlook on the uranium market, driven by strong supply/demand dynamics over the medium to long term. NexGen is advancing its development of the Arrow uranium deposit, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium project, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. With Arrow's potential to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow once developed by 2028, L1 Capital views NexGen’s strategic positioning as compelling, particularly given its current market capitalization of approximately C$4.2 billion. As NexGen nears the completion of its regulatory approvals, the Fund expects a clear pathway to full-scale construction, positioning the company to address the looming uranium supply deficit. L1 Capital remains confident in the long-term growth prospects for NexGen, viewing its development of Arrow as a highly attractive investment opportunity in the uranium sector.

L1 Capital

Date

30 Sept 2024

Price

$0.16

Medium

Quarterly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold its position in NexGen Energy, despite a 5% decline in uranium prices during the quarter. The fund remains positive on the medium to long-term outlook for the uranium market, driven by favorable supply and demand dynamics. NexGen is advancing the development of the Arrow project, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. This project is positioned to become a key strategic source of uranium to address the growing market deficit. L1 Capital expects NexGen to complete all necessary regulatory requirements within the next six months, providing a clear path to full-scale construction, with the project scheduled to commence production in 2028. Once operational, Arrow has the potential to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow, making it a highly attractive proposition considering NexGen's current market cap of approximately C$5.5 billion. L1 Capital believes the significant upside potential from the Arrow project remains underappreciated by the market, supporting their continued holding in the company.

L1 Capital

Date

30 Sept 2024

Price

$0.16

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold its position in NexGen Energy, which saw a positive share price movement driven by favorable sentiment in the uranium sector, especially following Microsoft’s agreement with Constellation Energy to restart a nuclear power facility. The fund remains bullish on the uranium market’s medium to long-term prospects, underpinned by strong supply and demand dynamics. NexGen is advancing the development of Arrow, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is expected to become a significant new source of uranium to address the market deficit. With regulatory approvals expected within the next six months, NexGen is on track to commence full-scale construction. Once operational, Arrow could generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow starting in 2028, making it an attractive investment given NexGen's current market cap of around C$5 billion. L1 Capital remains confident in NexGen’s long-term value, believing the market has yet to fully appreciate the project’s potential.

L1 Capital

Date

30 Nov 2024

Price

$0.19

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold its position in NexGen Energy after a 16% rise in shares, driven by the completion of the final federal technical review for its Arrow project. This milestone significantly de-risks the project, with the company now entering the final stage of federal approval, which is expected to culminate in a commission hearing in H1 2025. Once fully approved, NexGen can begin large-scale construction of Arrow, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. Given the looming uranium market deficit, Arrow presents a highly strategic, new Western source of supply. Once operational, Arrow is projected to generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow, offering a compelling investment opportunity relative to NexGen’s current market cap of approximately C$6.5 billion. L1 Capital remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the company as it advances toward the development of this significant resource.

L1 Capital

Date

31 Dec 2024

Price

$0.18

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

L1 Capital Long Short Fund continues to hold its position in NexGen Energy despite a 20% decline in shares, driven by a 5% drop in spot uranium prices. However, the fund remains confident in NexGen's long-term prospects as uranium 'term' prices have remained steady, holding a premium over spot prices, and supply risks persist due to the suspension of the Inkai joint venture in Kazakhstan. NexGen is on track to develop the Arrow project, the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. This project is seen as a strategic solution to the looming uranium market deficit. With the final stage of federal approval set for H1 2025, NexGen is poised to begin full-scale construction, positioning Arrow to potentially generate over C$2 billion in annual cash flow. Given NexGen's current market capitalization of approximately C$6 billion, the development of Arrow presents a highly attractive opportunity. Despite short-term price fluctuations, L1 Capital Long Short Fund remains positive on the company’s long-term growth trajectory.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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