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ASX:FBR

FBR Ltd

Investment Summary

The fund managers believe that FBR Ltd is on the cusp of significant value creation, particularly following the successful completion of its Demonstration Program with CRH Ventures in Florida. They recognize that FBR's technology, demonstrated through the construction of several homes using the Hadrian X® system, has garnered approval from independent structural engineers, thus confirming its compliance with building standards. In the opinion of the managers, this achievement marks a critical milestone in the commercialization of FBR’s innovative building technology, suggesting potential scalability and operational versatility in diverse construction projects. The impending period in January 2025 for CRH Ventures to exercise its option for an exclusive joint venture adds a layer of optimism, potentially bringing in a substantial US$400k payment to FBR, along with the establishment of a US$40 million rolling loan facility to fund operations.

Yet, despite these promising developments, the fund managers express concern over the current share price performance, which has not reflected the positive advancements. They attribute this stagnation to the inherent risks associated with the binary outcome of CRH Ventures exercising its option, as well as the necessity for additional capital raises. The market's slow reaction could partly stem from speculative trading behaviors and a focus on short-term gains, frustrating longer-term investors. The managers underscore that with an impressive revenue potential exceeding US$1.1 billion per annum from deploying 300 units at 70% utilization, along with favorable gross margins, the long-term outlook remains bullish. They emphasize that if FBR can navigate the immediate capital requirements successfully, a significant increase in market valuation and interest from potential buyers should materialize, reaffirming their confidence in the company's trajectory.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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Commentary From The Manager

Saville Capital

Date

31 Jan 2024

Price

$0.02

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold FBR Ltd., despite the recent decline in share price following a capital raise. The company has secured a significant milestone with the execution of a binding suite of agreements for a US Demonstration Program in collaboration with CRH Ventures Americas. This partnership with CRH, a US$50B market-cap company, could potentially lead to a joint venture that would include a US$40m rolling loan facility and conditional purchase orders for up to 300 Hadrian X® units. The revenue potential from deploying these units at 70% utilisation could exceed US$1.1B per annum, with target gross margins over 50%. While FBR has needed to raise capital to continue funding operations during the Demonstration Program, the partnership with CRH significantly strengthens the investment thesis. The potential for a long-term joint venture with CRH and exclusive agreements with their subsidiaries creates a pathway for substantial growth in the US market. Despite short-term challenges, Saville Capital remains optimistic about FBR’s future prospects and its role in the evolving construction automation sector.

Saville Capital

Date

28 Feb 2024

Price

$0.02

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold FBR Ltd. despite the stock trading below its recent capital raise price. The company has made notable progress, successfully completing the Factory Acceptance Test for CRH, triggering a second milestone payment of US$800k. The Hadrian X® technology exceeded expectations during the test, achieving an effective lay rate of 330 blocks/hour, surpassing the required 285. FBR is now preparing to ship the Hadrian X® to Florida for the Site Acceptance Test, ahead of a 5-10 house Demonstration Program. In addition, a significant validation came with the announcement that Liebherr will service and maintain the Hadrian X® at its Florida facilities, with plans to accelerate the manufacturing ramp-up. This, along with the ongoing collaboration for knowledge transfer and a potential long-term agreement, further strengthens the investment thesis. While challenges remain, Saville Capital remains optimistic about FBR’s progress toward commercialisation and long-term value creation.

Saville Capital

Date

31 July 2024

Price

$0.05

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold its investment in FBR Ltd, following a positive surge upon confirmation of the arrival of the Hadrian X® in Florida for the upcoming Site Acceptance Test and Demonstration Program. This momentum is seen as a delayed response to earlier positive developments combined with a challenging capital raising that attracted short-term investors. The fund recalls FBR's January announcement of a suite of binding agreements for a US Demonstration Program to construct external walls for 10 houses in Florida with CRH Ventures Americas, a major player in construction materials. Once the joint venture option is exercised, a US$40 million loan facility will support the construction of Hadrian X® units, with significant follow-on orders contingent on performance metrics. The potential revenue from 300 units operating at 70% utilization exceeds US$1.1 billion annually, with gross margins above 50%. Despite the need for additional capital to sustain operations during the Demonstration Program, the fund believes FBR's value could significantly appreciate if these hurdles are overcome and the joint venture is realized.

Saville Capital

Date

31 Aug 2024

Price

$0.04

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund updates its investment thesis on FBR Ltd, noting the company has raised $12.5 million via a placement to support its working capital as it progresses toward the anticipated exercise of its US joint venture option with CRH Ventures. Despite a recent successful Site Acceptance Test at the Fort Myers facility, which resulted in a $600,000 payment, FBR's stock price saw a decline from approximately $0.05 per share to the placement price of $0.038, attributed to short-term investor churn. Currently, FBR has initiated its US Demonstration Program, which includes constructing five houses, with the potential for five additional homes facilitated by CRH Ventures. Upon the completion of this program, FBR stands to receive $400,000 and trigger a 45-day period for CRH Ventures to exercise its option for a joint venture focused on delivering Wall as a Service® in the US, marking a pivotal moment for the company.

Saville Capital

Date

30 Sept 2024

Price

$0.05

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold its position in FBR Ltd, following the company's significant milestone of formally commencing its US Demonstration Program. The successful construction and certification of the first Hadrian X-built home in Florida not only underscores the potential of FBR's technology but also marks its inaugural entry into an international market. Partnering with builders like New Century USA, FBR is set to showcase the versatility and adaptability of its automated building technology across various home designs and sizes. The additional construction of four more homes with New Century, along with partnerships with other prominent Florida-based builders such as Christopher Alan Homes, the largest private homebuilder in Southwest Florida, highlights a promising trajectory for FBR as it seeks to establish a foothold in the U.S. residential construction market.

Saville Capital

Date

31 Dec 2024

Price

$0.04

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold FBR Ltd shares, as the completion of the Demonstration Program with CRH Ventures marks a significant milestone. FBR successfully constructed external walls for nine homes using the Hadrian X® technology, completing one home in a single day, all confirmed by independent structural engineers. With the Program wrapped up, CRH Ventures has a 45-day window starting January 2, 2025, to decide on a joint venture that could yield a US$400k payment to FBR. In the interim, FBR plans to construct additional homes with leading US builders. The anticipated joint venture could unlock substantial revenue potential, with projections exceeding US$1.1B annually from deploying 300 units. The partnership will also facilitate a rolling loan facility to fund future construction. Despite the Program's success, FBR's share price has not yet reacted, potentially due to market uncertainties regarding capital raises and the exercise of options. However, FBR stands poised for significant value creation, highlighting a promising outlook for the fund's investment thesis.

Saville Capital

Date

28 Feb 2025

Price

$0.02

Medium

Monthly Report

Commentary

Saville Capital Emerging Companies Fund continues to hold FBR Ltd. despite the disappointing outcome of the proposed joint venture (JV) with CRH in the U.S. FBR completed its Demonstration Program successfully, receiving high praise from PulteGroup and US$2m in non-refundable payments. However, the recent change in CRH's leadership led to a shift in strategy, resulting in the decision not to proceed with the JV. While this setback means FBR must now seek other partners in the U.S., the company has made significant strides in establishing credibility in the market. A positive development came on 24 February when FBR successfully completed a technology demonstration for Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) for potential application in shipbuilding. This could lead to a business agreement for developing automated solutions for the vessel industry. Although finding a new U.S. partner will take time and additional resources, the fund remains optimistic about FBR’s ability to explore alternative partnerships and opportunities in other sectors.

Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed. 

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